Стратегическое планирование бюджетного обеспечения экономической доступности продукции

The modern Doctrine of Food Security, among its strategic priorities, focuses on creating the physical and economic accessibility of food products for every citizen of the country in volumes no less than rational consumption standards. The scientific community’s concerns about the accelerated solution of these food problems are associated with new socio-economic risks and financial threats to the state of the food system

All this led to the fact that the Government of the Russian Federation was forced to adopt a package of anti-crisis measures, strengthening monitoring and measures to establish maximum permissible retail prices for certain types of socially significant essential food products

Today, the need for strategic planning measures to increase the economic accessibility of products is more relevant than ever. The authors of the article support the point of view of scientists

To understand what functionality a food support planning methodology should have, let’s analyze the situation. In the country as a whole in 2022, per capita consumption within the framework of rational standards can be noted only for meat, vegetable oil, sugar, eggs and bread products (Table 1).

The increase to rational standards should affect dairy products (+25%), potatoes (+7%), vegetables (+26%), fish (+31%), fruits (+37%). In the first four population groups (40% of the population), in terms of per capita income, the situation is significantly worse than the national average. In addition, according to our research

Differences in consumption levels are also observed between households, depending on where they live. The share of food expenses in the structure of household consumer spending in rural areas is almost 25% higher than in the city. At the same time, the consumption level for fruits, meat, milk and eggs is lower. At the same time, in rural areas, much more people consume cheap carbohydrate-containing products (bread, potatoes, sugar) than in cities. According to research by scientists

Differences are also observed by region. Suffice it to say that only the share of food expenses in 2022 varied significantly across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from 26% in Moscow to almost 62% in the Republic of Dagestan. The natural and economic conditions of the regions make their contribution to the formation of the physical and economic accessibility of products in these territories. The grouping of regions according to the cadastral value of 1 hectare of farmland showed that in groups of regions with favorable territories and climate the level of per capita consumption is higher than in groups of regions with less favorable natural and economic factors (Table 2).

The results of the analysis show that the country's population living in the first group of regions consumes less per person per year than the population living in the second and fifth groups of regions, respectively: bread products by 1.1% and 4.3%, potatoes by 11, 8% and 21.6%, dairy products by 9.3% and 20.3%, vegetables 10% and 35%, meat products by 6.3% and 10%, eggs by 8.7% and 10%.

The results of the analysis confirm the need for measures to support domestic food aid. It is advisable to study the methods available in science for planning food support for the population to increase the economic accessibility of products (Table 3).

Analyzing the methods for planning food assistance to the population presented in Table 3, it can be noted that each of them uses different approaches to justify the volume of necessary funds. According to various estimates by the authors of these methods, the planned volume of food support funds varies in the range of 200-400 billion rubles. At the same time, according to organizations of food producers and suppliers, about 800 billion rubles were required in 2020 for the issuance of food cards

Thus, approaches and methods for planning food support for the population when justifying financial resources should be based on rational standards of product consumption, taking into account the average per capita income of the population and the natural and economic characteristics of the regions of residence.

The authors of the article developed such a technique (Table 4).

The technique is implemented in two stages. At the first stage, expenses for rational consumption are determined by type of product (based on the norms of rational nutrition and prevailing prices for products) and the actual expenses of the population. At the second stage, by comparing expenses for actual and rational consumption, the amount of food support for the population is calculated.

The technique allows you to make calculations by type of product. This is necessary in order to influence the formation of the structure of domestic production through the formation of the structure of domestic demand, thereby linking them with the tasks being solved in the field of food security.

At the first stage, a comparison was made of actual expenses for product consumption and planned expenses according to rational standards (Fig. 1). Expenditures on food for main types of products vary between groups of regions according to the cadastral value of 1 hectare of farmland and according to the level of disposable per capita income of the population.

Figure 1 - Expenditures on actual consumption and on rational consumption of products in groups of regions by cadastral value of 1 hectare of farmland and by level of average per capita income

Note: thousand rubles/person per month

DOI:10.60797/IRJ.2024.144.23.5

The strongest deviation of actual consumption expenditures from expenditures according to rational standards is observed in the worst natural and economic conditions and in families with the lowest per capita income. In the first group of regions, the deviation for the first group of households with the lowest incomes is 62.2%, for the second group – 37.5%. In the fifth group of regions, deviations in similar groups of households are already 47.7% and 25.2%. On average across the country, these deviations are 47.4% in the first group of low-income families, and 24.9% in the second group. In general, comparing the deviations of expenses according to rational consumption standards and expenses for actual consumption, it can be noted that the first four groups of households in terms of average per capita income in all groups of regions are most in need of food support. The fifth and sixth groups of households in the first two groups of regions and the seventh group of households in the first group of regions also need to support demand for food.

At the second stage, an assessment of food support for the population was carried out (Fig. 2).

Figure 2 - Estimation of the amount of food support per capita in 2024 in groups of regions by the cadastral value of 1 hectare of farmland and by the level of average per capita income

Note: thousand rubles/person per month

DOI:10.60797/IRJ.2024.144.23.6

In the first group of regions for families with the lowest incomes, the average per capita amount of food support is estimated at 34.3 thousand rubles per year, in the fifth group of regions for families with the same income – 22.6 thousand rubles per year. As natural and economic conditions improve and per capita income increases, the need for food support decreases. Thus, in the fourth group of families in terms of per capita income living in the first group of regions, the average per capita amount of food support is estimated at 14.4 thousand rubles per year, and for those living in the fifth group of regions – 4.8 thousand rubles per year.

Calculations have shown that the urgent need to provide food assistance can be traced at least in the first four groups according to the level of average per capita disposable income (40% of the population), as well as partially in the fifth, sixth and seventh groups (about 8% of the population).

In 2024, food support for the population is estimated at 214 billion rubles in the first group of regions, up to 196 billion rubles in the fifth group. An assessment by population group by income level shows that the amount of support varies from almost 364 billion rubles in the first group, up to almost 11 billion rubles in the seventh group. The total amount of food support is estimated at 936 billion rubles in 2024 to 1084 billion rubles in 2027

In general, targeted food support to the population is aimed not only at achieving the level of consumption of basic types of products to rational standards, but also at ensuring a balanced diet. The nutritional structure according to rational standards should change compared to the actual one in favor of an increase in dairy products, vegetables and fruits. A simultaneous reduction in spending on meat in the nutritional structure should occur against the backdrop of rising spending on cattle meat consumption.

Thus, the need to introduce measures to stabilize the situation in the field of food security is recognized at the level of the executive and legislative branches of the Russian Federation. Scientists are inclined to actively use domestic food assistance to the population on the basis of food certificates. However, the full implementation of such measures in the practice of strategic planning is to a certain extent hampered due to the insufficient functional and simulation capabilities of the proposed methods that justify the required amount of food support. The authors of the article propose their own methodology, the approach of which is, first of all, to determine the amount of support funds based on a comparison of actual consumption expenditures and according to rational standards for each type of product, taking into account the average per capita expenditure of the population and the natural and economic conditions of the regions of residence. The authors believe that under the influence of the amounts of food support funds calculated according to the methodology, a demand structure will be formed that optimally meets the standards of rational nutrition. In turn, this structure of demand ultimately determines the structure of production, linked to rational standards of consumption of main types of products. This meets the modern tasks set in the field of ensuring national food security to achieve physical and economic accessibility of products at the level of rational consumption standards.