Results of forecasting average atmospheric air temperatures in the retrospective section 2017-2022 according to the ARIMA(2,1,1) model | Международный научно-исследовательский журнал

A STUDY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC AIR TEMPERATURE REGIME USING THE AUTOREGRESSION-MOVING AVERAGE MODEL (translation of the original publication in English)

Table 1 - Results of forecasting average atmospheric air temperatures in the retrospective section 2017-2022 according to the ARIMA(2,1,1) model

Date	Actual values	Forecast values		Aabsolute forecast error
Date	Actual values	with a constant	without a constant	with a constant	without a constant
1	2	3	4	5	6
2017	10.43	10.91	10.74	4.60	2.97
2018	11.63	11.18	11.02	3.90	5.27
2019	10.90	10.98	10.82	0.73	0.73
2020	12.67	10.98	10.79	13.32	14.82
2021	10.07	11.03	10.83	9.57	7.58
2022	10.53	11.05	10.83	4.91	2.82
Mean absolute forecast error				6.17	5.70