МЕЖСТРАНОВЫЕ ЭМПИРИЧЕСКИЕ ДАННЫЕ О МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯХ ЦЕНООБРАЗОВАНИЯ НА УГЛЕРОД: МЕТА-АНАЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ ОБЗОР С МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕМ ДЛЯ РОССИИ
Scenario Simulations: Projected GDP Impact of Carbon Pricing in Russia
ranges reflect the heterogeneous elasticity model (lower bound) cross-checked against CGE estimates from Makarov et al. [17] and Orlov and Grethe [18] (upper bound). Long-run impact applies an approximate 40 percent reduction reflecting capital stock adaptation and induced innovation, based on the average ratio of long-run to short-run estimates across studies in Table 1. Revenue recycling applies an approximate 50 percent reduction based on the cross-study evidence from Table 2. EU ETS reference price as of 2024: approximately 66 EUR
Scenario | Price, $/tCO2 | Short-run ΔGDP, no recycling | Short-run ΔGDP, with recycling | Long-run ΔGDP, no recycling | Long-run ΔGDP, with recycling |
Low | 25 | -0,4% to -0,5% | -0,2% to -0,3% | -0,2% to -0,3% | -0,1% to -0,2% |
Medium (EU ETS) | 50 | -0,8% to -1,0% | -0,4% to -0,5% | -0,5% to -0,6% | -0,2% to -0,3% |
High (Swedish) | 100 | -1,5% to -2,0% | -0,8% to -1,0% | -0,9% to -1,2% | -0,4% to -0,6% |