ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ДИНАМИКИ ОБЪЕМОВ УГЛЕВОДОРОДНОГО СЫРЬЯ, ДОБЫВАЕМЫХ МАЛЫМИ НЕФТЕГАЗОВЫМИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯМИ

Горлов А.В.

Кандидат экономических наук, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Центральный экономико-математический институт Российской академии наук

Работа выполнена при поддержке гранта РГНФ №14-02-00332

ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ДИНАМИКИ ОБЪЕМОВ УГЛЕВОДОРОДНОГО СЫРЬЯ, ДОБЫВАЕМЫХ МАЛЫМИ НЕФТЕГАЗОВЫМИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯМИ

Аннотация

В работе исследуются принципы функционирования малых нефтегазовых предприятий России. Рассмотрены основные характеристики и социально-экономические задачи, выполняемые малыми нефтегазовыми предприятиями. Выполнен корреляционно-регрессионный анализ, в результате которого получены парные коэффициенты корреляции между индикатором развития малых нефтегазовых предприятий (объем добычи углеводородного сырья) и факторами, характеризующими производственную среду их функционирования; построены регрессионные уравнения, описывающие процесс развития малых нефтегазовых предприятий. С целью прогнозирования развития малых нефтегазовых предприятий построены производственные функции Кобба-Дугласа и выбрана эконометрическая модель, обладающая хорошими прогностическими свойствами. Осуществлены прогнозные расчеты динамики объемов углеводородного сырья, добываемого малыми нефтегазовыми предприятиями на плановый период 2015–2016 гг.

Ключевые слова: малые нефтегазовые предприятия, добыча углеводородного сырья, индикаторы развития, корреляционно-регрессионный анализ, производственная функция Кобба-Дугласа, сценарные расчеты, прогнозирование.

Gorlov A.V.

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS

ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE DYNAMICS OF VOLUMES HYDROCARBONS OF SMALL OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES

Abstract

In this paper investigates the principles of functioning of small oil and gas enterprises of Russia. The basic characteristics and socio-economic tasks performed by the small oil and gas enterprises. Made correlation and regression analysis, a result of which the pair correlation coefficients between the indicator of development of small oil and gas enterprises (volumes hydrocarbons) and the factors that characterize the work environment of their operation; built regressions, describing the process of development of small oil and gas enterprises. With a view to forecasting the development of small oil and gas enterprises built production function of Cobb-Douglas and selected econometric model, has good predictive properties. Made predictive calculations dynamics of volumes hydrocarbons of small oil and gas enterprises on formulating scenarios for the planning period (2015–2016 years).

Keywords: small oil and gas enterprises; production of hydrocarbons; indicators of development; correlation and regression analysis; production function of Cobb-Douglas; scenario calculations; forecasting.

The role of small oil and gas enterprises in the Russian economy.

Oil and gas sector is impossible to imagine without a small business, and if we take into account the fact that Russia, as a largely cost-oriented mineral resource complex of the state, a small business that operates in the production of energy resources, acquires a special significance for the country and relevance.

Russian large business is concentrated in resource industries, in the main consists of vertically integrated companies – holdings with a full production cycle: from exploration through mining and refining, distribution of petroleum products to end consumers. In turn, in the process of mining, these companies often rely on small enterprises to large companies which are unclaimed resource potential of becoming a reliable source of raw materials and extends the range for the performance of the following activities:

• Local study of subsoil areas, mountain range and adjacent areas;
• Production of different fuel and energy minerals (coal, oil, natural and associated gas, bituminous shale) from natural deposits;
• The development of geo-energy sources (thermal water, geysers, etc.);
• The creation of new or improvement of existing technologies, facilities and equipment for the extraction and processing of hydrocarbon raw materials;
• Servicing, performance of services and various ancillary works at the facilities involved extraction of fuel and energy resources, their processing and recycling of waste (field construction, repairs, transport services, etc.);
• Environmental protection measures, the development of tools and methods to ensure the environmental safety of mining production.

In implementing these measures small enterprises solve a number of socially and economically significant problems, such as:

• Creating conditions for the local study of subsoil areas, waste deposits, further exploration of small mineral deposits and special geological research;
• Speeding up the transition to the development and introduction of new technologies and techniques that improve the completeness of extraction of minerals from the subsoil, recycling and improve the quality of oil products and chemicals;
• Participation in the market adaptation of large enterprises in the event of restructuring and conversion, as well as involvement in the process of mining, processing and manufacturing is not demanded by large business resources;
• Saturation of local markets of oil and gas production and chemicals at a more affordable price, thus satisfying public demand for key commodities and services;
• Reduce social tension in the society through the creation of new job vacancies, particularly in remote areas, as well as to prevent social degradation and the loss of skills of workers of industries due to the loss of their former jobs or due to unemployment;
• Help the younger generation of entrepreneurs in the implementation of capacity-building to training and education of the middle class.

All these socio-economic functions of small oil and gas business cause the formation of small enterprises, concentrated in the extraction of hydrocarbons, and isolating them from a number of other industrial plants.

The main purpose of the small oil and gas enterprises is to release the final product (in this case – the shipment of produced hydrocarbons), performance of works and provision of services, increasing the efficiency of the production cycle and the quality of products (works, services), rational use of raw materials and, ultimately, maximizing profits at the lowest commodity, labor, material and financial costs. The volume of produced hydrocarbons, and their subsequent processing, serve as a source for the production of basic oil products, petrochemicals and intermediates, polymers and products made of them, the production of light-duty types of petroleum products and petrochemical products, improve the conditions, comfort and quality of daily life of the population.

After almost 20 years (from 1995 to 2014) small oil and gas enterprises firmly and steadily operate in mining and processing of energy resources, presenting a progressive and growing sector of the national industry. According to statistical data of Rosstat [3-14] from 1995 to 2014 years the total number of small oil and gas enterprises increased by 78% and in 2014 year was 2240 units. Active growth of small firms has led to an increase in the amount of 34% of their employees – to 15 thousand people. During the same period the growth of investment in fixed assets (86 times) – up to 3 billion rubles, this contributed to the increase in the volume of produced hydrocarbons in 43 times – up to 38 billion rubles.

At the macroeconomic level, on average (from 1995 to 2014 years) the share of small oil and gas enterprises accounted for 7% of the total volume of produced hydrocarbon raw materials reserves of the country (see figure 1), while officially registered small businesses make up 53% of the total business organization, operating in the oil and gas sector (see figure 2).

Fig. 1 – The share of hydrocarbon production by small oil and gas enterprises in the oil and gas sector in Russia, %

 Fig. 2 – The share of small oil and gas enterprises in the total number of legal organization oil and gas sector in Russia, %

The low share of small enterprises in total Russian mining of fuel and energy a resource is largely due to the fact that the industry is dominated by large monopolies [1, p. 73]. At the same time, small firms tend to focus not on the shipment of harvests and the development of small-scale and depleted fields with low-rate wells, development of regional areas with hard and difficult to process recoverable reserves, that are not of interest for vertically integrated companies, because they require high operating costs thereby reducing the overall profitability of the entire corporation.

A major impediment to the full functioning of small enterprises in the oil and gas sector is the lack of their own infrastructure for transporting the extracted raw material, which significantly reduces the possibilities to minimize expenses and costs by diversification [2, p. 11].

In order to determine the prospects of development of Russian small oil and gas business author, with econometric tools, it was carried out a study based on the hypothesis that the development of small oil and gas enterprises, and they have achieved the level of activity depends on a number of factors responsible for their growth. This study was based on the following methodological principles:

• Information base of research has been prepared on the basis of annual statistical data on the state of small business and industrial sector in Russia, published by official sources Rosstat [3-14].
• The time range include of 20 years (1995–2014 years).
• Economic-mathematical toolkit comprises methods of correlation and regression analysis and the unit of production functions.
• Effective variable, representing is an indicator of the level of development of small oil and gas enterprises – volume mining of fuel and energy resources (million rubles) – Y.
• Factorial signs, representing is an indicators characterizing the work environment of small enterprises: the average number of employees (thousand persons) – L; value of fixed assets (million rubles) – K; volume investment in fixed capital (million rubles) – I; the wage of workers (thousand rubles) – W; number of small oil and gas companies (units) – E.
• Electronic banking statistics information generated in the MC Excel; processing of empirical data and computational procedures were performed using an application package EViews 6.0.

On the basis of the use of correlation analysis has revealed the degree of influence factors on effective variable. The corresponding correlation coefficients are shown in table 1.

Table 1 – the correlation of indicator of development of small oil and gas enterprises on the factors 

 

According to the factors, the relationship of the indicator of development of small oil and gas enterprises can be traced all the factors, but the tightness of this connection varies. Hydrocarbon production by small firms is largely due to their number, as well as measures to stimulate industrial and production personnel. That is the effect of these two factors on effective variable is the dominant character, which can be interpreted as follows.

Very often, small oil and gas enterprises cooperate with each other on the basis of obtaining synergies within the overall economic structure with the aim of mutual use of each firm’s competitive advantages for the company and organizational maneuvers property. Industrial cooperation in mining causes the growth of small enterprises and creates conditions for the effective use of their production capacity, the optimal reallocation of industrial resources and improves the level of employment, providing the dynamics of mining resources.

The presence of wage workers among the dominant factors explains severe and specific working conditions in the oil and gas industry, especially given the fact that small firms operate are characterized by increased accidents and injuries activities – exploration, drilling and research of wells and mines, mining of oil and gas extraction and gas condensate, underground repair of wells. Implementation of these activities entails, despite the precautions taken, and personal protective equipment at great risk to life and health of personnel. In this regard, the wages of workers (which is one of the highest compared to other sectors of small business of Russia) leads to ordering the construction of vocational structure of the labor force and helps small enterprises quickly adapt to the production cycle and increase the volume of extracted raw materials.

After detection of correlations between the effective variable and factors, in order to describe the development of small oil and gas firms the method of least squares was made construct a series of one-factor linear regression equations (as the highest values of pair correlation coefficients between the factors would lead to multicollinearity and offset values). The obtained regressions appear in table 2.

Table 2 – regression equations of the development of small oil and gas enterprises

 

These regressions allow watching the development of small oil and gas enterprises depends on their number (E) according to equation (1), an increase in the number of small enterprises per unit of production leads to the activation of growth of harvests an average of 24 million rubles. An estimate of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients indicate the figures -statistics Student, above critical (table) values (|t_actual|> 2), and the quality and value of this dependence confirms the high value of the coefficient of determination (R² ≈ 1,0), and Fisher's exact test (F_table < F_actual).

Also, it is necessary to allocate the equation (2) and (3). According to these models the increase of the average wage of workers (W) for 1 thousand rubles and an increase in the cost of major industrial assets (K) for 1 million rubles, provide increased hydrocarbon production by 1,2 million rubles and 32,7 million rubles.

Statistical regression estimates (4) and (5) received less than substantial, and these equations should be seen more as an experimental. Since the factors I and L are directly related to the work environment of small oil and gas enterprises and are important components in the economic activity of small firms, and more surprising look regression results indicating low significance of these equations.

Production functions of small oil and gas enterprises.

In this section, the author uses the methodology of production functions in order to build econometric models linking the volume produced by small enterprises of hydrocarbons with their existing resources available for future forecasting. As the analyzed variables of production functions using all of the above factors, except factor E as its introduction to econometric model will look inappropriate.

Arsenal functional dependencies to play the development of small oil and gas enterprises accounted for two-factor linear production function Cobb-Douglas with constant elasticity with different combinations of factors. When plotting the raw data time series were converted into base indices growth rates and presented dimensionless quantities.

Econometric estimation of parameters of production functions performed in logarithms using least squares method. For each model, as in the case of the regression equation in order to test the hypothesis on the significance of the coefficients function fixed corresponding values of -statistics and the coefficient of determination  to take into account information about the quality of the functions.

Building production functions are shown in table 3.

Table 3 – the production functions the development of small oil and gas enterprises (based on the basic indexes of statistical data, 1995 = 100)

According to the elasticity coefficient, reflecting the contribution of the factors considered in the formation of direct-production volumes of hydrocarbons in the functions (7), (8) and (11) is dominated by the factor W. In the models (6) and (9) the factor L prevails, but in the equation (11), its significance is not great, which is probably due to the close relationship with the factor W.

Investments I, as property K, also strongly influence the development of small oil and gas enterprises, and the function (10), where both factors are present, the proportion of investment in fixed assets is higher, than that of fixed assets. This disparity is due to the fact that the majority of small mining firms engaged in production activity in the old, run-down or written-off equipment, since they prefer not to buy expensive equipment, and re-invest part of the profits to the existing property. Therefore, domestic investments are considered as investments in material and technical base (equipment, vehicles, component parts, etc.) market value decreases with time, and the cost of repair and maintenance work on its proper use and maintenance increases.

As a further version could be made and such an assumption that conditions of market transformation, when the transition from resource constraints of demand to the importance of fixed assets for small firms as a factor that could determine the dynamics of output, fell sharply. In the functions (7), (9) and (10), where this indicator is present, the ratio of its elasticity is not dominant. Probably, in the extraction of hydrocarbon raw materials, production capacities, on the balance of small enterprises, using them is not in full, and has a long service life.

On the basis of production functions, in order to determine their accuracy and suitability for predicting the development of small oil and gas enterprises have been calculated mean relative error of the dynamics of hydrocarbon production during the analyzed period, the value of which should not exceed the allowable unit (5%). The calculations showed that the lowest average relative error of – 3,4% recorded in the model (7). This model is superior to the other functions of the values of the coefficient of determination, and the resulting score indicates its satisfactory accuracy and usefulness of forecasting.

The scenario calculations and forecasting the development of small oil and gas enterprises.

Forecasting the development of small oil and gas enterprises was carried out using a production function (7) for two years – 2015 and 2016. To perform predictive calculations based on chain indices growth dynamics of the factors included in the production function, it has been formulated and proposed two possible scenarios – optimistic and pessimistic. Elaboration of the proposed scenarios based on the following methodological principles.

The optimistic scenario – in this scenario, for two years it is planned to increase the fixed assets and wages to the small mining enterprises. To play the expected situation use the maximum growth rate of the factors considered during the study period.

The pessimistic scenario – if this scenario should expect a decrease in the dynamics of the fixed assets and wages of employees of small oil and gas enterprises. To display such a course of events taken into account the minimum rates of growth factors during the study period.

Variation factors of the generated scenarios are shown in table 4.

Table 4 – characteristics of scenarios the development of small oil and gas enterprises

 

The results of predictive calculations volumes of hydrocarbons of small enterprises and the growth rate of these values compared with 2014 are presented in table 5.

Table 5 – prognostic value of production volumes of hydrocarbons of small oil and gas enterprises in 2015–2016 years

In accordance with the results of the scenario calculations the development of small oil and gas enterprises over the forecast period will be in the following possible variations.

With the implementation of the optimistic scenario, the increase in hydrocarbon production will be 17,4% on average. Such a course of events can not be excluded. Although imposed on Russia by a number of economic sanctions, which also affected the oil market, the dynamics recorded in the production function of factors over a long period shows a positive trend, which, in the future, could affect the growth of volumes produced by small enterprises resources.

The pessimistic scenario is characterized by less high values of volumes of hydrocarbon production, the growth of which is expected by 16.4% on average. This scenario is most likely to be considered as given the unstable situation at the present time in the Russian economy and possible slowdown in the factors, respectively – more volatile dynamics of the mined hydrocarbon raw materials or decline.

Our study revealed that the prospects for the development of small firms and their potential in the mined of hydrocarbons seem to be very controversial. On the one hand, the importance of small enterprises for the Russian oil and gas industry is confirmed by a large amount of functions, which they perform in the course of its operation. On the other hand, there are several obstacles to their sustainable development – insufficient access to resources, lack of public demand for domestic products, low innovation level of the Russian economy, the shortage of skilled workers, imperfect legislation.

It should also be borne in mind that Russia imposed economic sanctions led to the depreciation of the national currency and the destabilization of prices for hydrocarbons (primarily – oil). Thus, the real prospect looks inevitable decline of production volumes of hydrocarbons, caused by the decline in state investment in the sector of small enterprises, operating in the extraction of energy resources.

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