МЕЖСТРАНОВЫЕ ЭМПИРИЧЕСКИЕ ДАННЫЕ О МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯХ ЦЕНООБРАЗОВАНИЯ НА УГЛЕРОД: МЕТА-АНАЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ ОБЗОР С МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕМ ДЛЯ РОССИИ
GDP Effects by Revenue Recycling Design
BC = British Columbia. “Reduction vs. no recycling” shows the degree to which recycling reduces the negative GDP impact relative to the no-recycling or lump-sum baseline. CGE results are simulation outputs. The 57 percent figure compares -0,24% (recycling) to -0,56% (lump-sum) in Goulder and Hafstead’s E3 model
Revenue recycling design | GDP effect estimate | Reduction vs. no recycling | Source |
Income and corporate tax cuts (BC) | No significant effect | Full offset | Bernard, Kichian ; Yamazaki |
Corporate tax cuts — manufacturing (BC) | +0,06% TFP | Net positive | Yamazaki |
Income tax recycling (US CGE) | -0,24% GDP | 57% | Goulder, Hafstead |
Lump-sum rebate (US CGE) | -0,56% GDP | Baseline | Goulder, Hafstead |
Labor tax recycling (Russia CGE) | Positive (double dividend) | > 100% (sign reversal) | Orlov, Grethe |
Lump-sum compensation (Russia CGE) | -0,63% welfare | Baseline | Orlov, Grethe |