ФАКТОРЫ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ И РИСКА В АГРАРНОМ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕ

Серебрякова М.Ф.

Старший преподаватель, Волгоградский государственный аграрный университет

 ФАКТОРЫ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ И РИСКА В АГРАРНОМ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕ

Аннотация

В статье рассмотрены факторы неопределенности и риска влияющие на сельское хозяйство, отражены вопросы функционирования сельскохозяйственных предприятий в условиях неопределенности, проанализированы особенности аграрного производства, формирующими неопределенность  и риски функционирования сельскохозяйственных предприятий, так же в статье представлена классификация рисков в сельском хозяйстве по признаку «степень предупреждения риска» и «возможность устранения неопределенности, лежащей в основе появления данного риска».

Ключевые слова: неопределенность,  риски, сельское хозяйство.

Serebryakova M.F.

Senior lecturer, Volgograd  State  Agrarian  University

 FACTORS OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN AGRARIAN PRODUCTION

Abstract

The article considers the factors of uncertainty and risk affecting agriculture, and addresses issues of functioning of agricultural enterprises in conditions of uncertainty, analyzed the features of agricultural production that generates uncertainty and risks for the functioning of agricultural enterprises, as well the article presents a classification of risks in agriculture on the basis of "the degree of risk prevention" and "the ability to eliminate the uncertainty that underlies the emergence of this risk and sources of risk».

Keywords: uncertainty, risk, agriculture.

Modern conditions are more than ever characterized by the high level of uncertainty and risk.  Especially sharply it is shown in branch of agriculture which is characterized by big unexpectedness of natural and working conditions in her. It causes bigger risk in the choice of options of agrobusiness: high share of probability (danger) of loss of resources, production and income. Results of agricultural production can't be predicted with full definiteness because the quantity and quality of the used resources are in advance precisely unknown.

Uncertainty of the agricultural enterprises defines conditions of external and internal environment.

Uncertainty of external environment is caused by a political and social situation, the external economic and agrarian policy of the state, market conditions, tax regime, a condition of the world market, a natural and biological basis of agricultural production.

Carry personnel, innovative, technical and technological, economic policy of the enterprise, reaction to external calls to internal prerequisites of uncertainty, morally – psychological climate in collective, conditions of reproduction of labor, structure of shots, investment appeal, and others [3].

Specificity of types of risks in agrarian and industrial complex is caused by the features of agricultural production forming uncertainty of functioning of the agricultural enterprises. So, for example, cultivation of crops is connected with an investment big material and a manpower which to pay back quite difficult.

"The production risk in agrarian business is caused by variability of the process of production because of unpredictability of climatic conditions, behavior of customers, suppliers, the change in price" [2]. At the same time, the author, as the main sources of emergence of risks sees fluctuation in prices and productivity. The terms of the market are dictated to agricultural producers need to enter the market only with that production which possesses valuable qualities, is in stable demand, has the highest and fast return from the made expenses. Despite the favorable price environment which has developed after crisis of 1998, fluctuations in the prices remain a serious factor of uncertainty in agriculture.

 It can be tracked in the regional market of grain of the Volgograd region (figure 1).

Fig. 1 - Dynamics of the prices grain in the Volgograd region for 2001-2014 Source. It is calculated according to Territorial Federal state statistics

Thus, the analysis of dynamics of the prices grain shows decrease in this criterion by 82% that has in turn had an adverse effect on efficiency of activity of agricultural production in general. For example, it is possible to grow up a harvest, with observance at the same time of all agrotechnical norms, but if finally costs of production of the made production don't pay back the price, all this will lead to negative result. In this regard transformation of the prices directly characterizes a condition of uncertainty of agricultural production.

Considerable risks in agriculture are connected also with weather conditions on which productivity and quality of production depends. In recent years risks in world agriculture are aggravated with almost universal global changes of air temperature, increase in the atmosphere of levels of concentration of CO2 and other harmful substances, increase in quantity and power of natural disasters.

To agrarian production of Russia various are characteristic it is soil – climatic conditions. Droughty and semi-droughty zones are peculiar to the most part of land fund owing to what the agricultural producer has no opportunity to grow up a big crop without artificial irrigation. Owing to adverse climatic conditions the economic value of lands, in communication decreases with what use of their potential fertility is complicated.

In recent years there was a new type of risk – uncertainty of the land relations [4]. Change of the land relations during reforms and formation of new structure of an agricultural complex has led to emergence of the huge areas of the not used agricultural grounds located mainly in zones with a low bioclimatic potential. These lands, as a rule, belong to nonfunctioning agricultural enterprises, farms and personal subsidiary farms. Low return, and also difficulties at registration, have served as the reason of a conclusion of the farmland from a turn, having lowered the income of bulk of agriculture.

So, according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, in our country about 20% of all available arable land (more than 21 million hectares) aren't used. Often owners of the land plots use them without observance of the corresponding rules.

Speaking about risks in agriculture, you shouldn't ignore social aspects as, still, one of the main problems remains the relation to country people. Both in Russia, and in her regions, the production and social infrastructure is poorly developed in the village. The village needs the advancing social and economic development as the residual principle applied for many years in relation to his development has caused noticeable lag from the city on a complex of questions of social, infrastructure arrangement, etc. from here big migration to the large cities and industrial centers, a staff deficit. It is also serious risk for investment investments in agrarian business.

From all set of risks, the basic is decrease in food security of the country that is caused by the developing difficult and contradictory economic situation for development of agro-industrial production [1].

Application of sanctions of the European Union against Russia strengthens already complex problem of food security. Russia imports such products as meat and meat products, fruit, vegetable oil, etc. According to the international practice, the state in which overall balance of internal consumption the share of import deliveries makes 20 – 30% is on the verge of loss of economic security. By many vital types of the food the country is beyond critical values.

Considering relationships of cause and effect of two main considered categories of "uncertainty" and "risk" it is obviously possible to classify them by two signs (table 1):

• degree of the prevention of risk (low, average, high);
• a possibility of elimination of the uncertainty which is the cornerstone of emergence of this risk (low, average, high).

 

Table 1 - Classification of risks in agriculture by sign "degree of the prevention of risk" and "a possibility of elimination of uncertainty"

Uncertainty factor	Main risks	Degree of the prevention of risk	Possibility of elimination of uncertainty
Fluctuation in prices	Formation of the price, favorable to producer	High	High
Weather conditions	Productivity shortage	Average	Average
	Decline in quality of production	Average	Average
Land relations	Leaving of the farmland	High	High
	Violation of crop rotations	High	High
Social	Staff deficit	Average	High
Imposition of sanctions of the European Union	Delivery of necessary raw materials, equipment, materials	High	Average

 

Follows from data of the table that today it is possible to exert considerable impact on degree of uncertainty of the majority of risks of agriculture, reducing production losses. If the subject has understood that he "is" in a risk zone, then he will be able to accept certain actions which will lead to decrease in probability of emergence of possible negative consequences.

Thus, uncertainty is a condition of functioning of the agricultural enterprises and accompanies their activity throughout all "life cycle". She to a greater or lesser extent leaves the mark on conducting business activity of agricultural producers.

References

1. Daeva, T.V. Analytical approaches to an assessing of investment activity of rural areas / T.V. Daeva //International research journal. 2015. № 11-1 (42). P. 35-36.
2. Chayanov, A. Ekonomicheskaya the party of melioration in country economy. Chayanov//Melioration and water management. - 1997. - No. 2. – P.13-17.
3. Serebryakova, M. F. The conditions forming uncertainty in agriculture//the Concept. – 2015. – Special issue No. 21.
4. Zvereva, G.N. Efficiency of application of agricultural land in the region / G.N. Zvereva / Business. Education. Law. Bulletin of Volgograd Business Institute. - 2013.- № 3 (24). P. 109-114.