ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ФИНАНСОВОГО СОСТОНИЯ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ ПОДВИЖНОЙ СВЯЗИ
Шаравова О.И.1, Белянчикова М.П.2
1 ORCID: 0000-0002-5910-829X, доцент, кандидат экономических наук, Московский технический университет связи и информатики, 2 ORCID: 0000-0002-5782-7637, аспирант, Московский технический университет связи и информатики
ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ФИНАНСОВОГО СОСТОНИЯ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ ПОДВИЖНОЙ СВЯЗИ
Аннотация
Определены особенности финансовых ресурсов организаций подвижной связи. Доказано структурно-стоимостное влияние на значения показателей финансовой устойчивости, платежеспособности и ликвидности организаций подвижной связи. Обоснована необходимость применения в организациях подвижной связи специфичной модели прогнозирования финансовой устойчивости с учетом особенностей производства и потребления услуг, состава, структуры и использования финансовых ресурсов. Представлена разработанная эконометрическая модель оценки перспективной финансовой устойчивости организаций подвижной связи.
Ключевые слова: подвижная связь, финансовые ресурсы, оборотные средства, финансовая устойчивость.
Sharavova O.I. 1, Belyanchikova M.P. 2
1 ORCID: 0000-0002-5910-829X, Associate Professor, PhD in Economics, Moscow Technical University of Communications and Informatics, 2 ORCID: 0000-0002-5782-7637, Postgraduate Student, Moscow Technical University of Communications and informatics
FORECASTING OF FINANCIAL POSITION OF MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATIONS
Abstract
The features of the financial resources of the mobile communications companies are defined. Cost-structural impact on the value of financial stability, solvency and liquidity of the mobile communications companies is proved. The necessity of application in the organizations of mobile communications the forecasting models of financial stability, taking into account the peculiarities of the production and consumption of services, composition, structure and use of financial resources is outlined. The developed econometric model of evaluation of perspective financial stability of the mobile communications companies has been presented.
Keywords: mobile communication, financial resources, working capital, financial stability.
Development of mobile communications contributes to the raise of public production efficiency, social development of society, growth of the gross domestic product (GDP). Alongside, the liberalization of markets, deletion of national borders, world informatization of society determine significant increase of information scope, transmission of which demands advanced rates of development of communications and info- communication technologies that promote, in their turn, the acceleration of scientific and technical progress and growth of economy.
At the present time, the role of mobile communications in the national economy of Russia is defined by its belonging to productive and social infrastructure. Availability and quality of mobile communications services provision are attributed to the general conditions without which normal functioning of production and commerce of goods, as well as people’s vital activity are impossible.
Infrastructural role of mobile communications in the national economy and network nature of production of its services have predetermined the need of application of specific methods of economic management, the principles of state regulation and economic relationships at the services market. The peculiarity of the produced by mobile communications product, e.g. the services, the specificity of production resources, technologies and the organization of processes of information transmission and consumption of services cause not only the singularity of operation of the economic laws in the sector of mobile communications, but also the particularities of the status and usage of its production resources [1, 10-11].
One of the most important types of the resources necessary for production of mobile communication services is financial resources that consist of the fixed capital and working capital.
Specific finances’ features of the branch of info-communications and characteristics of the assets and liabilities structure of the organizations of mobile communications, immaterial character of the product and provision of services to all economical sectors and the population assign the special, distinguishing from other spheres of production, structure, form, flow and the process of use of financial resources [2, 35].
Immaterial character of a product - services of mobile communications, defines the insignificant amount of inventory, including raw products and materials in the assets of mobile communications organizations. According to 2010-2014 yy data the amount of inventory of such largest operators of mobile communications as JSC "MTS", JSC "VimpelCom", JSC "MegаFon" was only 0,2 -1,5 %.
Also the amount of current assets in the structure of financial resources of the mobile communications organizations is low, its share in total assets of mobile communications operators is 7-23%, while for the Russian enterprises of productive industries the availability of current assets at the level of not less than 40% of total assets is specified [4, 84].
The necessity to meet the users needs in availability and quality of mobile communications services timely and completely leads to the prevailing percentage weight of fixed assets in structure of PPE that take form of expensive constructions, base stations, the equipment, networks, hardware and software for the production of services.
In structure of current assets of mobile communications operators the considerable share belongs to accounts receivable as in the service payment system payment tariff with post-paid system of payment is prevailing, the broad application of which is promoted by business struggle at the market of mobile communications services. The level of accounts receivable of the largest Russian mobile communications operators in the total cost of current assets has been reaching 55,6% in 2010 - 2014 years.
All highlighted factors that characterize features of formation and usage of financial resources of the Russian mobile communications operators cause structural and cost impact on values of indicators of financial stability, solvency and liquidity.
Besides, special regulatory restrictions for a number of the most important financial indicators (Current Assets to Equity Ratio, Working Capital Financed by Equity to Total Assets Ratio, Liquidity Ratio), other than used at the enterprises of other spheres of the Russian national economics for the financial analysis are applied for assessment of the current financial state of the mobile communications organizations in order for an accurate and objective assessment of their real financial position [4, 85].
Taking into account the specifics of activity, production and consumption of services, features of composition, structure, the flow and usage of financial resources in the sector of mobile communication, the market environment and the macroeconomic situation in general, the econometric model of assessment of perspective financial stability in which the Financial Stability Index (Equity plus Long-term Debt to Total Assets Ratio), Debt to Equity Ratio, Working Capital Financed by Equity to Current Assets Ratio act as predictor independent variables has been developed for forecasting financial position of the mobile communications organizations:
,
where 
– Financial Stability Index (Equity plus Long-term Debt to Total Assets Ratio), Debt to Equity Ratio, Working Capital Financed by Equity to Current Assets Ratio accordingly [1, 461].
If the dependent variable у ³ 0, a perspective financial position of the mobile communications organization is estimated as stable, and if у < 0, a perspective financial position of the mobile communications organization is estimated as unstable.
The dependent variable of the econometric model of assessment of perspective financial stability of the mobile communications organizations represents a relative value – the specific weight of surplus or shortage of the amount of equity and long-term loaned sources of formation of the current assets (excluding the inventory) in the balance sheet total amount.
Adequacy of the developed econometric model is estimated by means of the Coefficient of Determination and the Fischer's and Snedekora's criteria. The value of the Coefficient of Determination at the level of 0, 87 testifies a possibility of usage of the econometric model of assessment of perspective financial stability for the mobile communications organizations for forecasting purposes and acceptable values of the Fischer's and Snedekora's criteria allow to reject a hypothesis of insignificance of the regression equation.
For the most accurate assessment of the perspective financial position of mobile communications operators for the perspective term of 2-3 years for the values of indicators of the Financial Stability Index (Equity plus Long-term Debt to Total Assets Ratio), Debt to Equity Ratio, Working Capital Financed by Equity to Current Assets Ratio in the econometric model of assessment of perspective financial stability of the mobile communications organizations the values of these indicators calculated by the method of application of autoregressive econometric models should be used [3, 85].
References
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- Kuzovkova T.A., Sharavova O. I. Features of financial resources of the organizations of info-communications // International research journal. – 2014. - № 10-3 (29). – pp. 34-36.
- Kuzovkova Т.А., Sharavova О.I., Terekhova Yu.S. Financial forecasting in communication organizations. T-Comm. 2015. Vol 9. No.8, pр. 84-89. (in Russian).
- Sharavova O.I. Methodological peculiarities of diagnostics of the financial situation infocomm companies (DOI 10.18454/IRJ.2015.41.176) // International research journal. – 2015. - № 10 (41). Part 1. – pp. 84-85.