ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ ФИНАНСОВОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ КОМПАНИИ С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИХ МЕТОДОВ

Иремадзе Э.О.¹, Антонова Н.А.²

¹Кандидат химических наук, доцент, ²Кандидат педагогических наук, доцент, Стерлитамакский филиал Башкирского государственного университета

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ ФИНАНСОВОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ КОМПАНИИ С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИХ МЕТОДОВ

Аннотация

Целью работы является исследование состояния микросреды ПАО «Транснефть» через анализ и прогнозирование показателей основной деятельности компании с использованием экономико-математических методов. Предложена оптимизационная модель производственной программы компании, позволяющая определить эффективные границы работы данного субъекта и на основе этого определить сильные и слабые стороны ПАО «Транснефть».

Решается задача увеличения уровня прибыли, предложены рекомендации, которые могут быть использованы руководством ПАО «Транснефть» при определении плановых объемов услуг и для улучшения эффективности деятельности ПАО «Транснефть».

Ключевые слова: экономико-математические методы, прогнозирование, оптимизация, экономико-математические модели, границы эффективного объема, эффективный объем работ и услуг.

Iremadze E.O.¹, Antonova N.A.²

¹PhD in Chemistry, associate professor, ²PhD in Pedagogy, associate professor, Sterlitamak branch of Bashkir State University

PREDICTION OF FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF A COMPANY USING MATHEMATICAL METHODS 

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to examine the microenvironment of PSC “Transneft” through analysis and forecasting of the company’s basic indicators using economic and mathematical methods. The proposed optimization model of the company’s production program allows determining the effective operating limits of the company and on this basis to determine the strengths and weaknesses of PSC “Transnef”.

The objective of the study is to work out recommendations that can be used by the leadership of PSC “Transneft” in determining the planned volumes of services, the increase of profit and the efficiency of the company’s activity.

Keywords: economic and mathematical methods, forecasting, optimization, economic and mathematical models, border of effective volume, the effective volume of works and services.

In modern conditions when companies plan their future activities using a new, well-developed concept, their current activities must be analyzed properly in order to identify both positive and negative factors. Consequently, the analysis and planning of the entity’ economic activities are key features of the whole production process [6].

It should be noted that investors, creditors, owners, business partners have their own objectives, and it is impossible to achieve them without constant strengthening and maintaining a sufficient level of the company’s financial stability. Stable financial condition is an important prerequisite for the implementation of the entire range of the company's goals and, therefore, gives the company the opportunity to receive a sufficiently high and stable income and keep its position in a competitive environment [3].

In this paper the micro-state of PSC “Transneft” has been investigated by analyzing indicators of economic activity and forecasting indicators of the main activities of the company with the use of economic-mathematical methods [5].

The relevance of this work is based on the use of complex production functions as a tool for the analysis of economic activities of the company. Unlike the actual production functions, this tool not only simplifies the process of analysis, but also allows the researchers to expand the opportunities for the implementation of new methods of planning and forecasting of financial results for the development of promising industrial activity [1].

When analyzing the results of activities of PSC “Transneft” we used mathematical methods and mathematical modeling of production processes on the basis of the elements of the theory of functions of complex variables and mathematical models for effective planning by G.V. Savinov [4].

Production functions of a complex argument were used, in which complex number of production factors are set in accordance with the actual number of results of production. The study revealed that the constructed linear production function of a complex argument has a number of interesting properties, and its coefficients have quite simple economic sense. It is expected that the use of this function when considering the company’s financial condition, reveals new results, due to the fact that the coefficients of this function have been found for each case individually, and it also helps to analyze the processes in the business [2].

When calculating the coefficients for the use of the resources of the linear production function of a complex argument, it was revealed that the present economic situation at PSC “Transneft” is in some decline, by comparison with the prior period of activity. This analysis shows that the PSC “Transneft” does not get the largest return from the use of resources, and this is proved by a decrease of such indicators as labor productivity and capital productivity by 10% and 48% respectively. It is also worth saying that the company’ basic production assets were used more than labor resources, and their growth by comparison with the previous year was 119%, which is also a negative impact to the operating results of the company.

The analysis of the economic activity of the investigated company shows that in the past five years, the economic and financial situations of the company has deteriorated and disbalance between the volume of production, work force and economic resources has emerged, all these factors have caused a drop in profit growth or even a loss. So, in the current situation, the management of the company faces the main problem of the preservation of the competitiveness that requires immediate use of different principles of analysis and planning.

Consequently, in the current situation the management of PSC “Transneft” should work out an optimal plan for its core business so that to achieve the maximum possible income.

The main activity of the PSC “Transneft” is the transportation of oil and petroleum products through the pipeline system on the territory of Russia and abroad. Also, the activities of the company include diagnostic, preventive and emergency repair works to ensure the protection of the environment in the areas where the pipeline system and storage of oil and oil products is situated. The financial condition of the company depends on such factors as the fulfillment of production plans, the reduction of production costs and increase profits, the increase of production efficiency, the improvement of relationships with suppliers and buyers of the products.

To determine the optimal amount of services in order to maximize profits, the effective bounds were determined for supply of services in PSC “Transneft”: the bounds for the area of break-even volumes of Russian oil transportation; bounds for the area of break-even volumes of oil products transportation; the bounds for the area of break-even volume of crude oil exports.

In view of the determined effective bounds for each of the services, it is possible to determine the optimal amount of these services in order to maximize the company’s profits.

Table 1 - Tariffs and expenses for services of PSC “Transneft”

Services on transportation of Russian oil		Services on transit oil transportation		Services on transportation of oil products		Services on crude oil exports
Tariff per ton, mon. units	Expenses per ton, mon. units	Tariff per ton, mon. units	Expenses per ton, mon. units	Tariff per ton, mon. units	Expenses per ton, mon. units	Tariff per ton, mon. units	Expenses per ton, mon. units
1493,3	1449,1	1784,1	1638,0	777,5	776,5	861,2	440,9

 

The income generated through these services should not be lower than the average expected income, while costs should not exceed the expected rate of spending. This is a problem of linear programming, or the problem of unconstrained optimization with limitations.

The function of gross income is as follows:

The Function of costs Then, the profit of PSC “Transneft” is: subject to the limitations: where x1 - services on transportation of Russian oil; x2 - services on transit oil transportation; x3 - services on transportation of oil products; x4 - services on crude oil exports. So, we have the following results.  

Table 2 - Optimum scope of services of PSC “Transneft”

Transportation of Russian oi,l thous. tons	Transit oil transportation, thous. tons	Oil products ransportation, thous. tons	Crude oil export, thous. tons
265 595	10 290	1 354	305 584
Profit, mon. units	141 821 166
Revenue, mon. units	685 141 201
Costs, mon. units	543 320 034

 

Thus, the most profitable service and activities for PSC “Transneft” are the following: transit oil transportation and sale of crude oil for export; the least profitable service is the transportation of oil products. Therefore, for the effective operation of PSC “Transneft” it is necessary to increase the volume of services in crude oil export and transportation of transit oil to 305.6 million tons and 10.3 million tons by reducing the volume of transportation of Russian oil and oil products within the country to 266.6 million tons and 1.3 million tons respectively.

If the calculated optimal amount of provided works and services is fulfilled, PSC “Transneft” will be able to get a profit in the amount of 141.6 billion rubles that is an increase of 124.9 billion rubles by comparison with the profit in 2015.

Currently, the most promising market for Russia's oil consumption is the Asian–Pacific market, therefore, the company PSC “Transneft” should give particular attention to the export of oil in this direction.

Список литературы на английском языке / References in English

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2. Grigorieva TV, Iremadze EO, EG Valitova Analysis of the economic activity of the enterprise on the basis of mathematical modeling // In: Education and science: the current state and prospects of development // Collection of articles of the International scientific-practical conference. - 2013. - P. 39-41.
3. Kulinich O., Iremadze E. O. Predicting major economic indicators // In: State and prospects of economic development in conditions of uncertainty // Collection of articles of the International scientific-practical conference. - 2014. P. 107-109.
4. Ibatullina E. H., Iremadze E. O. The effective activity of the organization on the example of «Salavatneftemash» // Proceedings SWorld. - 2012. T. 19. - №2. - P. 22-23.
5. Iremadze E.O., Antonova N.A. Optimization model of consumer loans portfolio in commercial banks according to current problems on the example of JSC «Russian standard» bank // International Research Journal. - 2016. - № 7-1 (49). - P. 30-31.
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