СОВРЕМЕННЫЙ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ КОНФЛИКТ И ИМПЕРАТИВЫ ПОСТКОНФЛИКТНЫХ ТРАНСАКЦИЙ
Явчуновская Р.А.
Доктор политических наук, Профессор, Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ
СОВРЕМЕННЫЙ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ КОНФЛИКТ И ИМПЕРАТИВЫ ПОСТКОНФЛИКТНЫХ ТРАНСАКЦИЙ
Аннотация
В статье рассмотрены геополитические факторы, сопутствующие современным региональным конфликтам и выделены основные императивы, имеющие значение для снижения остроты или урегулирования конфликтных коллизий путем осуществления международных постконфликтных трансакций политического и дипломатического характера.
Ключевые слова: региональный конфликт, геополитические факторы, постконфликтные трансакции
Yavchunovskaya R.A.
PhD in Political Science, Professor, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation
MODERN REGIONAL CONFLICT AND THE IMPERATIVES OF POST-CONFLICT TRANSACTIONS
Abstract
The article considers the geopolitical factors associated with contemporary regional conflicts and the basic imperatives of importance to mitigate or resolve conflict conflicts through the implementation of post-conflict international transaction of political and diplomatic nature.
Keywords: regional conflict, geopolitical factors, post-conflict transactions.
In recent years, American political scientists intensively investigate the theory of simulation of military-political conflicts. The problem of international conflicts and crises is dedicated to dozens of books and articles on military-political conflicts. But emerging international conflicts include not only military and political but also economic, cultural, ideological, and other factors. Many scientists approach the study of the causes and conditions of emergence of tensions and conflicts between States from the standpoint of recognition of the uneven economic and political development of different countries.
Developers of logic-mathematical models and experts in game theory try these factors to consider using quantitative indicators. As noted by the American scientist Clark, can never be complete confidence that the strategic simulation of international conflict true, but it can improve resolution of the conflict and its consequences.
It is no exaggeration to note that since the beginning of XXI century global policy faced with fundamentally new challenges, threats, issues, trends and principles of relations between States and geopolitical spaces at the regional level.
Factors determining the nature of a permanent conflict situations are: first, the strengthening of the geopolitical ambitions and the exacerbation of rivalries for regional leadership between States, applying for this role, and secondly, attempts by the US and the EU to prevent the strengthening of Russia's influence on the processes of settlement of the most important and complex regional problems .
The sustainability and strength of political systems becomes a difficult problem for governments of national States. In this context, it is about creating the optimal conditions under which international actors could operate and most productive, to provide a high level of security as military - political, economic, technological, social, ecological, information.
Considering the conflict in relation to international crises, as his development increases or weakens the tension and severity, the importance of determining the significance of the goal that is being threatened.
For evaluation of decisions, considering various combinations of elements of crisis situations, we can derive a hypothesis about the appropriateness of certain actions by States and taking foreign policy decisions. It is quite weighty updated role of political responsibility and political legitimacy based on international law.
Take for example the Asia-Pacific region. In the region there are numerous territorial disputes, which under certain circumstances can lead to increased conflict and military tensions. In particular, Tokyo continues to challenge Russian sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands. Not resolved the contradictions between Japonium and China and Taiwan on the Senkaku Ostrovo and the problem of delimitation of the exclusive economic zones in the East China sea, Japan and the Republic of Korea and North Korea on the Dokdo island Not removed from the agenda, the subject of border demarcation between the majority of Southeast Asian countries, as well as the ownership of the Spratly archipelago in the South China sea, which are claimed by China, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.
A source of potential conflict in the Asia-Pacific region remains the Korean Peninsula, due to the absence at this stage of effective mechanisms of ensuring security in the region. On the Peninsula deployed opposing each other pupperoni armed forces of the DPRK - on the one hand, and with another - the United States and the Republic of Korea. Also remains a problem around the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula, which bears a political character and has actively used the North Korean and American sides for their own purposes. So, Pyongyang expects the permission to make interstate direct contacts with Washington in the interests of further normalization of bilateral relations on favorable terms.
Or another complex region - postsovetskom space problems, is able to accumulate casino the potential for conflict. The processes of political transformations in post-Soviet countries remain significant condition contributing to undermining the regional stability and security.
The most influential factor in stimulating the militant manifestations in the post-Soviet space, have become international conflicts: the Transnistrian, Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgian-Abkhazian, Georgian - Ossetian, Ossetian - Ingush.
In many republics of the ethno-confessional contradictions, will not lead to direct armed confrontation, however, was initiated by political tensions and conflict risks.
If during the period of the 1990s had been a factor manifested itself mainlyin the Caucasus and in Central Asia, events of 2014-2015 have shown its relevance for the development of the Ukrainian crisis. The active part of Ukrainian nationalists, originally very small in number and stand in the shadow of the widely known opposition leaders during the coup and immediately after he had converted the protest of society's resources in the form of paramilitary formations. During the growing conflict in fact they were formally legalized in the armed forces, while maintaining autonomy, is fundamentally contrary to the principles of the regular army. The presence of armed groups controlled by the nationalist elites, thus proving the ability of the latter to become such a feature of statehood, as a military force.
The backbone of the political force of "volunteer battalions" became the support of the Ukrainian oligarchy, represented primarily by the Dnepropetrovsk clan, as well as the help of influential figures of foreign national communities that are closely connected with foreign special services.
It is the presence of paramilitary group’s paramilitary nationalist that are only partly controlled by the new Kiev authorities, has become one of the factors escalating the conflict into a civil war unprecedented for a modern democratic state the level of intransigence and cruelty.
It is worsening, largely artificial, the national question was distorted the content of international policy in the post-Soviet region.
The proliferation of military-political blocs to neighboring countries, on the one hand, is taken for adoption here of the impact of new global "hegemons".
In turn, the implementation of purely military objectives dictated by current world market conditions requires the mobilization of resources and infrastructure of the CIS countries in warlike preparations of leading world powers and their unions. Practically implemented the incorporation of post-Soviet countries in various military-political unions composed of States, not staying in the orbit of influence of Russian civilization, as well as the involvement of the population in post-Soviet countries in armed conflicts and other violent attacks in foreign countries and regions, particularly in the wars in the middle East in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Ukraine. Consequently, the main danger is the risk of unintended escalation in the incident with the participation of military forces, leading to human casualties or substantial damage to the parties. As a result, the tensions will continue to rise, will be difficult to bring the situation under control and to stop the development of the conflict.
In this context, we should identify a few strategic directions that can be considered as fundamental for the realization of the world's shared interests in resolving the conflict and ensuring regional security.
1. Coordination. With the emergence of international conflict remains an important bridging differences while maintaining respect for conflicting parties and the third parties. Need a sober and honest understanding of the positions of each party and the restructuring of interactions, to stop the buildup of tension and to reverse the negative trends of growing conflict.
2. Connecting all international institutions. Unlike American experts, emphasizing the limited capacity of international institutions, with activity already created mechanimal settlement of the conflict and the emergence of new institutions in the form of alliances, coalitions or associations, aimed at economic or other non-military cooperation can be developed "new rules" of reconciling conflicting interests. For example, the resumption of the activities of the Council Russia-NATO could contribute to the settlement of the question of European security in the modern conditions of growing terrorist threat.
3. Control over the financing of the force involved in the conflict. The problem archeometry, as tied to the world economy and (not a secret) the interests of the American financial oligarchs who receive economic benefits from arms sales, from the production of new types of weapons, from the purchase and resale of cheap oil. Funding, for example, the Islamic state is maintained from 40 countries, including Western. Among the countries-sponsors, through affiliated with the government funds which are the financial flows to terrorists, you can call the state, is in close proximity with the territories occupied by the Islamists - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar. Also the Pakistani press in April 2015 appeared recognition as one of the leaders of the "Islamic state" on the financial support from the United States. Also identifies the channels of raising funds through social networks, through the use of crowdfunding, we have a massive collection over the Internet donations. The practice of financial investigation shows that a significant portion of funds to foreign terrorists cashed in areas adjacent to the conflict zone territories and countries through which they transited.
4. Non-criminalization of the information space and the Internet. Amid competing interests and differences in the interpretations of the current crisis, provoking the conflicts, the importance is the field of information and Internet. The global network is largely related to the difficulty of implementation of state control over the activities of radical organizations and their associated Internet movements. Social networks provide the opportunity to create unconventional forms of communication, up to groups or communities of terrorist or nationalist character. In recent time, the activities of opposition members in the Network began to attract the attention of government agencies and thereby to exert a certain influence on political decision-making. The country, aware of the fatality of the outbreak of a conflict situation, should be interested in the turnaround to confrontation, to increase predictability in the development of effective channels of cooperation, using including media as a means to protect the civilian population in the conflict region.
We can recall the words of Yevgeny Primakov, who noted that "Spring" began spontaneously, but spread it across the Arab world was already associated with modern communications technologies - Internet, TV.
Involved in this process and the terrorists - Islamists.
In addition to the "Arab spring" there are a number of examples of "revolutionary" events in post-Soviet countries: Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Ukraine. The network component in these countries is expressed through the coordination of opposition parties and popular movements through social networks and mobile phones. Although social networks have not played a major role in the history of protest movements in many countries over the last decade, however, they often defined the tactical course of events and the organization of revolutions, because the main purpose of communication the online space is organize and then "tear off" citizens from computer monitors and bring them to the streets.
The development of events in Ukraine, repeated the same scenario as the events of 2010 and 2011 in the Arab countries, noted that a rapidly spreading network activity structures and actors network in the organization of political action, of conflict.
It appears that in order to find optimal and effective opportunities available to the global community the positive potential of cooperation and understanding should be based on expertise and political and diplomatic level; these contacts dialog the format can be more useful than a manifestation of military force, they can be more constructive and consensus in the adoption of political solutions to overcome the stochasticity of modern conflicts.
References
- The report "overcoming the differences in security issues in 2015:t Rossiyskaya, American, European position. No. 21/2015. Russian Council on international Affairs. M.: Specchia, 2015. - 54 p.
- Lebedeva M. M. World politics. –M.: Aspect Press, 2007. - 220 p.
- Primakov E. M. Thinking out loud.-M.:Ros. newspape, 2014. - 207 C.